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TMRO Report
Markets

U.S. appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up likely fight at Supreme Court

The Ninth Circuit ruled sports-related event contracts are not swaps, conflicting with a Third Circuit decision.

By TMRO Staff·1 min read

Key points

  • Ninth Circuit ruled sports event contracts are not swaps.
  • Ruling contradicts Third Circuit decision from April.
  • Decision sets up likely Supreme Court fight.

What happened

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that sports-related event contracts are not swaps, according to a CNBC report published on August 28, 2026. The decision directly contradicts a Third Circuit ruling from April, which had reached the opposite conclusion.

Why it matters

The split between the two federal appeals courts creates a legal conflict that often prompts the Supreme Court to step in. The ruling could affect the regulatory oversight of prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of events such as sports games. The case now appears headed for a potential Supreme Court review.

Why it matters

The conflicting rulings create a circuit split, increasing the likelihood the Supreme Court will hear the case to resolve the legal status of prediction markets.

Sources

TMRO Report writes original coverage based on the material listed above.